This year, 64 countries, representing 2 billion voters, held national elections—a density of political activity unparalleled in history. As we reflect on these global political shifts, one trend is particularly striking: the widespread struggles of incumbent governments.
Across various regions, ruling parties faced significant setbacks. In the United States, the Democratic Party not only lost the presidency but also ceded control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives to the Republican Party. Similarly, the United Kingdom saw the Conservative Party ousted by Labour, which returned to power after a 15-year hiatus.
France’s Renaissance Party, led by President Emmanuel Macron, suffered a major blow, losing dozens of parliamentary seats. Though Macron’s presidency continues, his weakened position requires him to form coalitions to govern effectively, illustrating the vulnerability of even strong leaders in fragmented political landscapes.
Elsewhere in Europe—Portugal, Lithuania, Austria—the trend persisted, with incumbent parties losing their dominance or being forced into coalition governments. In Asia, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its parliamentary majority, while its traditional ally, Komeito, also faced electoral losses. South Korea experienced similar instability.
Even in India, a country where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have maintained strong influence for years, the BJP managed only 240 out of 543 parliamentary seats in this year’s elections, falling short of a majority.
Africa was not immune to this wave. South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), long the dominant force, was compelled to form its first-ever coalition government.
To understand why so many incumbents are losing ground, we must consider two key questions:
1. What factors are contributing to this global trend?
2. Is this a temporary cycle or a structural shift?
The economy is a significant common denominator. Since 2022, high inflation has plagued countries worldwide, eroding public trust in governments. While inflation is difficult for any administration to control, the perception of economic mismanagement often leads to electoral backlash.
Looking back at the pandemic, governments across the globe significantly increased public spending to mitigate its impact. While GDP figures may not have reflected drastic declines during the pandemic, much of this "growth" was driven by government expenditure rather than private-sector productivity. This overreliance on public spending has created long-term inflationary pressures.
In addition, the war in Ukraine disrupted global economies, hitting Europe particularly hard. Energy crises, rising costs, and economic stagnation have intensified dissatisfaction with incumbent parties.
Beyond economic cycles, we may be witnessing a deeper structural shift. Modern societies are increasingly shaped by information technology, social media, and the decentralization of traditional media. Platforms like Twitter and YouTube have amplified the voices of influencers and KOLs (key opinion leaders), reshaping public opinion and political engagement.
Interestingly, even the ultra-wealthy, such as Elon Musk and Ray Dalio, are heavily investing in building their social media presence. The convergence of wealth, influence, and power is becoming more apparent, as these individuals leverage their platforms to shape political narratives.
Musk’s public support for Donald Trump, including reported donations exceeding $100 million, illustrates the growing connection between digital influence and political power. This trend underscores a shift in the balance of power: from traditional media to decentralized, individual-driven networks.
As populist sentiments rise in democratic societies, authoritarian regimes face their own challenges. Leaders in countries like China, Russia, and Iran are increasingly paranoid about losing control. They tighten their grip on power, fearing the ripple effects of global instability and dissent.
However, the rise of populism also raises concerns about the long-term viability of democratic systems. In politically polarized societies, many citizens tie their identities to their political affiliations, which fuels divisiveness and undermines objective discourse.
We cannot overlook the profound impact of technology on how societies function. Historian Yuval Noah Harari has extensively discussed the role of imagination in human evolution—the ability to construct shared beliefs and societal structures. In today’s world, technology is reshaping these shared constructs, influencing how people perceive their roles within society.
Social media, in particular, has heightened the importance of visibility and influence. Unlike traditional media, where a few controlled narratives, today’s decentralized platforms allow anyone to command an audience. This democratization of influence creates new opportunities but also amplifies division and misinformation.
As a firm believer in open and constructive dialogue, I welcome high-quality criticism and diverse perspectives. I also reflect on my own belief and mindful of my actions on social media. In this complex environment, it is vital to resist simplistic binaries of left versus right, or red versus blue. Instead, we should strive for nuanced understanding and thoughtful engagement with the issues at hand.
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